Edible-Oil Buyers & Traders in India - Import Duty Cut Timing

India just cut edible oil import duties. Why now? Crude sunflower oil duty is down from 10% to 0%. Crude palm and crude soybean oil are down from 10% to 5%. Refined oil duties were cut too, keeping the 19.25% crude-to-refined differential intact. The timing looks odd According to industry sources, imports for the Oct-Sep season are already at about 165 lakh tons (soy, sun and palm), up 2.2% Y/y. That is the second highest in the last 15 years, behind only 2022-23. Festive buying is done. The oil is already in the country, bought at higher prices. The cost to the government is real Lower duty means lower revenue. It also pressures domestic oilseed prices just before peak harvest. If prices fall below MSP, the government has to procure. So it loses on duty and pays on procurement. My read: this is a longer game The global edible oil balance sheet is structurally tight. More edible oil is going into biofuel as mandates expand in several countries. El Nino threatens palm oil production in the new season. Prices are likely to stay elevated. Cutting duty now looks like inflation protection ahead of that squeeze. Is this smart pre-emption or poor timing? I'd like to hear from buyers and traders. Data source: Ministry of Commerce, India & Analyst Assumptions. #EdibleOils #PalmOil #SunflowerOil #SoybeanOil #Procurement #CommodityMarkets #India