Temple PD Crime Analysts - Flock Cameras Impact on Vehicle Theft

Mayor says auto theft is down 60% because of Flock cameras. The annual reports tell a more complicated story. I've been looking into the mayor's recent claim that vehicle theft is down 60% because of Flock cameras (https://www.youtube.com/live/i4H4zCVBbY4?t=3574) , and I wanted to share what the actual Temple PD annual reports show. Not my opinion, just the numbers. The data breakdown (population-adjusted, per 1,000 residents): Vehicle Theft Rate per 1,000 Residents Year Rate vs. 2020 2020- 3.97/1000 (baseline) 2021- 2.25/1000 (–43%) 2022 (Flock deployed) 1.57/1000 (–60%) 2023- 3.20 /1000 (+104%) 2024- 3.62/1000 (+131%) 2025- 2.18 /1000 (-45%) The 60% drop is real, but here's the timing issue: it happened between 2020 and 2022, before and during the initial deployment of roughly 20 cameras. The network didn't expand to 190+ cameras until after that drop already happened. Then: 2023 and 2024, the first two full years after the network was scaled up, vehicle theft got worse, not better. Rates were 104% and 131% higher than the 2022 low. 2025 shows improvement again, but one year of improvement doesn't prove causation, especially after two years of worsening. If you average the post-deployment years against pre-deployment, the average rate actually went up 15.5%, not down. Other things worth noting: Temple's population grew 19.8% from 2020 to 2025. Raw numbers alone can be misleading, so this analysis uses rates per 1,000 residents to account for growth. Temple switched from UCR to NIBRS reporting in 2024, which records more offense detail and can make crime appear higher because more conduct is counted. The annual reports don't break out Flock-specific data: no hit counts, no stolen vehicle recoveries attributed to Flock, no clearance rate changes. There's simply no way to directly tie any trend to the cameras from the published documents. Nationally, crime has been declining across the board, with violent crime falling to its lowest level since 1969. But Temple's violent crime rate has been essentially flat, moving from 3.38 to 3.10 per 1,000. The annual reports this is all based on: \2020\ \2021\ \2022\ \2023\ \2024\ \2025\ Full analysis with charts and methodology: https://deflocktemple.com/resources/TempleCrimeTrends I'm not saying the cameras are useless. They clearly helped in at least 16 documented cases over three years. But the question is whether the citywide data supports the claim that Flock caused a 60% drop in vehicle theft. The timing doesn't line up, and the reports don't contain the specific Flock data needed to make that case. Would love to hear from people who actually work with these reports or have access to Flock-specific solve data. What would it take to evaluate this properly?