Posted more than 1 month ago

Finance Expert Needed to Explain Kaspi.kz Low Valuation vs Peers

Can someone please make the $KSPI valuation make sense to me? (6.7x P/E) Okay, I need a sanity check. I've been in a rabbit hole with Kaspi.kz ($KSPI) for an article, and my brain is starting to break. This company is an absolute monster operationally. I'm talking 50%+ ROE. I'm talking 18 straight quarters of "Rule of 40." I'm talking user engagement that rivals Facebook (68% DAU/MAU) and an avg. user making 76 transactions a MONTH. It's a better business on paper than $MELI, $SE, or $NU. And it trades at 6.7x P/E. I know the risks. I'm not blind. It's in Kazakhstan. (Tenge currency risk is real, I get it). The Turkey Gamble. (They're spending a ton of money expanding, and it could totally fail). The Geopolitics. (That 2024 short-seller report about Russia. Even though JPM/Goldman still have $100+ targets, the "stink" lingers). But... does all that add up to an 80-90% discount to its peers? Is the currency risk really so bad it wipes out 50% ROE? Is the market pricing the Turkey expansion as a 100% chance of bankruptcy? I'm struggling to see how the math works. It feels like the market is pricing in a total catastrophe for a business that is, right now, firing on all cylinders. I laid out all the numbers and the bull/bear case in my kaspi analysis. Genuinely curious if I'm just missing the obvious, massive trap here.
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