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EU Energy Security Experts - Shipping Chokepoints & Winter Gas Risk

Mid-July, I shared how El Niño was already straining the Panama Canal. Two months later, the numbers have gotten worse: daily transits cut from 36 to 32 since last week, heading toward 29.5 by October (Source: Al Jazeera). That's one shock. I've spent years working on defense-naval and sovereign programs, where a closed route or a delayed shipment isn't a line in a report, it's the program stalling. The Strait of Hormuz: effectively closed to commercial shipping, with only a handful of ships transiting daily versus roughly 85 in normal times (Source: straits.live). The Bab-el-Mandeb strait: under blockade by a party actively restricting shipping linked to Saudi Arabia (Source: Al Jazeera). A major Saudi export pipeline: shut down as a precaution after a drone strike last week (Source: CNN). On top of that, Europe has already lost most of what used to be its largest gas supplier: Russian pipeline gas fell from about 40% of EU imports in 2021 to roughly 6% today (Source: Bruegel), with a full import ban in force since March (Source: GIS Reports). European gas storage now sits near 68%, well below the 88% seasonal norm (Source: GIE AGSI+). None of these developments share a cause. That's exactly what makes them worth watching together, not just for industries, but for household energy bills this winter too. This could turn into a real energy and economic crisis in Europe this winter. If you know this space better than I do, I'd like to hear from you, publicly or in DM.

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